Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $135.01 by Dec 31, 2026?

What's driving it

• • The July 21 headline of crude extending gains on Middle East supply fears and hitting a mid-June high reinforces the Yes case, but the persistent 76% No odds indicate traders view these as transient spikes (finance.biggo.com, Jul 21).
• • The July 8 report that Trump called the Iran peace deal 'over' caused a crude jump, yet the market has not repriced Yes higher, implying the risk is already priced in or seen as containable (Reuters, Jul 8).
• • The absence of any headline showing WTI near $135 (e.g., Robinhood reports on Jul 15 and Jul 17 show no record-breaking prices) anchors the No side, as current levels are far from the target.
• • The May 18 and May 13 headlines show oil volatility (up 3% on Iran concerns, then settling lower), reinforcing that supply scares have not produced sustained high prices (Reuters, May 18; WSJ, May 13).

What to watch

• • Next OPEC+ meeting (likely in late 2026): a decision to cut output would push odds up (Yes), while an increase would push odds down (No).
• • Any new Iran nuclear talks or military escalation: a diplomatic breakthrough would reduce odds (No), while a direct confrontation would raise odds (Yes).
• • Monthly U.S. jobs or GDP data showing recession: weaker demand would lower odds (No), while stronger-than-expected growth could raise odds (Yes).