Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $130.01 by Dec 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 30% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 30% right now.
Despite repeated geopolitical scares from the Iran conflict, the market assigns only a 27% chance that WTI front-month will settle above $130 by year-end, suggesting traders see the recent price spikes as temporary and expect supply/demand fundamentals to cap prices below that threshold.
📊 Base rate: Since 2000, WTI front-month settlements have exceeded $130 only during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock, giving an annual probability of roughly 10%—meaning the current 27% odds are already pricing in a material risk premium from Middle East tensions.
What's driving it
- • A July 8 headline that Trump declared the Iran peace deal 'over' sent crude jumping and briefly raised Yes odds, but the pullback since shows the market doubts a sustained supply disruption.
- • July 21 reports of crude extending gains on Middle East supply fears and hitting the highest since mid-June provided a temporary boost, yet the No side remains dominant at 73%.
- • A May 18 rally of 3% on Iran war supply concerns was followed by choppy trade and a lower settle on May 13, reinforcing the pattern that spikes fade.
The case for YES
- • If hostilities with Iran escalate into a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a significant fraction of global supply could be cut off, pushing WTI well above $130.
- • A synchronized global economic recovery stronger than expected could combine with constrained OPEC+ spare capacity to drive prices past the threshold.
- • A series of unplanned outages in other major producers (e.g., Libya, Nigeria) on top of the Iran risk could create a supply vacuum that sends prices spiking.
The case for NO
- • The recent price surges have been short-lived and each time crude retreated, as seen in the choppy trade that followed the May 18 Iran scare, suggesting the $130 level acts as a ceiling.
- • If the US and its allies release strategic petroleum reserves or if OPEC+ increases output to compensate for any disruptions, supply fears would be contained.
- • A global economic slowdown driven by high inflation or a recession in key consumers would weaken demand, making it unlikely that prices sustain a rally above $130.
What to watch
- • Any confirmed military strike on Iranian oil facilities or a mined strait (direction Yes).
- • A surprise OPEC+ decision to boost quotas at their next meeting (direction No).
- • A weak US jobs report or contraction in manufacturing PMI signaling demand destruction (direction No).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $130 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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