Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 35% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 35% right now.
The market is pricing a 36% chance of WTI hitting $120+ by year-end, reflecting a tug-of-war between geopolitical supply fears and the lack of a sustained price breakout despite recent spikes.
📊 Base rate: Since 2000, WTI front-month crude has settled above $120 in only about 5% of all trading days, and such levels have typically required a major supply disruption or demand shock.
What's driving it
- • The odds likely rose after July 8, when Reuters reported Trump calling the Iran peace deal 'over' and crude jumped, escalating Middle East supply fears (Reuters, Jul 8).
- • A brief price spike on July 21, when crude hit its highest since mid-June on supply fears, may have reinforced the bullish case (finance.biggo.com, Jul 21).
- • The 64% No odds reflect that recent price moves have been short-lived, with WTI settling lower in choppy trade as recently as May (WSJ, May 13), suggesting resistance to sustained highs.
The case for YES
- • A major escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt Persian Gulf oil flows, pushing prices above $120, as seen after Trump's July 8 statement that the peace deal is 'over' (Reuters, Jul 8).
- • Supply fears have already driven a 3% rally to a two-week high in May on Iran war concerns (Reuters, May 18), showing the market is sensitive to geopolitical triggers that could push prices higher.
- • If a hurricane or unplanned outage hits Gulf of Mexico production in the remainder of 2026, it could compound existing supply fears and drive a spike above $120.
The case for NO
- • The $120 threshold is far above recent settle prices; even after the July 21 spike, crude only briefly hit its highest since mid-June, not $120 (finance.biggo.com, Jul 21).
- • Choppy trading and lower settles in May (WSJ, May 13) indicate that supply fears have not translated into sustained price momentum, making a $120+ spike unlikely without a much larger disruption.
- • The 64% No odds suggest the market sees current geopolitical tensions as already priced in, and that a diplomatic resolution or demand weakness could cap prices below $120.
What to watch
- • Any official US or Iranian announcement on nuclear talks or ceasefire in the coming months would likely move odds toward No, as it would reduce supply risk.
- • A major OPEC+ meeting or surprise production increase decision before Dec 31 would push odds toward No by signaling ample supply.
- • A confirmed attack on oil infrastructure in the Middle East or a new US sanctions escalation would push odds toward Yes by raising the risk of a supply crunch.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $120 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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