Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
🗂 Part of event: July Unemployment Rate →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 13% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 13% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
The market is nearly evenly split between a crash to $55 and a surge to $120, but the small recent shift toward the dump scenario reflects that near-term demand weakness and infrastructure investment are outweighing supply disruption risks for now.
2 outcomes
GOLD Price: Pump to $4.900 or Dump to $3.700?
Despite safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict, gold is trading below $4,000 and facing a bearish 'death cross' technical pattern, pushing the market strongly toward a dump to $3,700 (71% odds) rather than a pump to $4,900.
2 outcomes
World’s largest company at the end of 2026
The field is highly concentrated on Nvidia, but the sum of top-three odds exceeding 100% reflects overlapping bets rather than certainty, and the biggest recent shift is the emergence of SpaceX as a speculative contender, as highlighted by Benzinga on June 16, which could fragment the race if its valuation narrative gains traction.
7 outcomes
Next target for the US interest rate (July)
The field is heavily concentrated on a rate hold at 76%, yet the 22% chance of a hike indicates genuine uncertainty, driven by the Fed chair's ambiguous signals and mixed global inflation data that could still tip the decision either way.
4 outcomes