Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →WTI crude oil has already surpassed $85 per barrel earlier this month, making market resolution effectively certain - the current 100% Yes odds reflect that the trigger event has occurred, driven by Iran conflict and Red Sea tensions that pushed prices to $90.
📊 Base rate: In the past decade, WTI crude oil has only briefly exceeded $85 during the 2022 Ukraine war spike, but once a major supply disruption (such as Red Sea blockade) drives prices above that level, the move is seldom reversed within the same month.
What's driving it
- • Iran conflict escalation and Red Sea shipping disruptions pushed WTI to a six-week high above $90 by July 23, confirmed by multiple outlets including PSU Watch and investingLive.
- • The 49 point surge in Yes odds over the past week tracks directly with headlines reporting crude hitting $90 and Brent reaching a three-month high (The Times of India).
- • Mortgage rates hitting a yearly high due to the same Iran tensions (HousingWire) reinforces the broad inflationary and risk-off context sustaining oil prices.
The case for YES
- • WTI crude oil already reached $90 on July 23, well above the $85 threshold, as reported by investingLive and The Times of India.
- • The market resolution only requires one 1-minute candle in July with a High price at or above $85, and the $90 print satisfies that condition.
- • Geopolitical risks (U.S.-Iran tensions, Red Sea attacks) remain elevated, making a sustained drop below $85 before the end of July highly unlikely.
The case for NO
- • If the specific 1-minute candle that showed $90 was later corrected or deemed outside the applicable trading session (e.g., after-hours or illiquid contract month), it might not count.
- • The resolution relies on Pyth data; any discrepancy between the widely reported $90 and Pyth's official feed could create a technical No outcome.
- • No headlines or data support these scenarios, so the No case is purely hypothetical and unsupported by current information.
What to watch
- • July 2026 contract expiration (around July 21) and subsequent roll to a new active month could cause short-lived volatility, but any dip would need to avoid retesting $85 to matter - no catalyst points toward a No resolution.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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