How much Gold will it take to buy one Bitcoin next?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 10 oz at about a 80% chance — likely.
The field is extremely concentrated on two outcomes—10 oz (80%) and 30 oz (20%)—with no other candidate above 5%, reflecting a binary bet on whether Bitcoin's purchasing power in gold terms will halve or nearly triple from current levels. The biggest recent shift is the 80% weight on 10 oz, likely reinforced by prominent voices like Peter Brandt publicly favoring gold over Bitcoin (BeInCrypto, Jul 5) and a broader narrative of gold's resurgence as a store of value.
📊 Base rate: Since Bitcoin's inception in 2009, the BTC-to-gold ratio has fluctuated wildly, but it has never sustained a level above 30 oz per Bitcoin for more than a few days; the historical median ratio is roughly 10–15 oz, making the 10 oz outcome closer to the long-term average and the 30 oz outcome a rare extreme.
What's driving it
- • Peter Brandt's public shift to selling Bitcoin for gold (BeInCrypto, Jul 5) signals a respected trader betting on gold outperforming Bitcoin, which directly supports the 10 oz outcome.
- • A Fortune report (Jan 30) noted a crypto firm switching from storing Bitcoin in Swiss vaults to storing gold instead, indicating institutional preference for physical gold over digital assets.
- • The Forbes piece (Jan 25) linking Fed policy to a potential game-changer for both gold and Bitcoin prices introduces macro uncertainty, but the lack of a clear catalyst for Bitcoin's relative strength keeps the 30 oz odds low.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The 10 oz target is the front-runner at 80% because it reflects the current ratio (roughly 10–12 oz per BTC as of mid-2026) and requires only a modest decline in Bitcoin's gold price, which aligns with bearish sentiment from figures like Peter Brandt (BeInCrypto, Jul 5).
- • The 30 oz target at 20% is a long-shot bet that Bitcoin's value in gold terms will nearly triple, which would require a massive Bitcoin rally or gold crash—neither of which has clear recent catalysts.
- • The binary structure (only two outcomes) forces odds to sum to 100%, so the 80/20 split simply mirrors the market's view that the current ratio is more likely to drift down to 10 oz than up to 30 oz.
Why it's still open
- • The field is not truly open—only two outcomes exist—but the 20% odds on 30 oz could rise if a major Bitcoin bull catalyst emerges, such as a surprise Fed pivot to monetary easing that boosts risk assets (Forbes, Jan 25).
- • A sustained gold price decline (e.g., from a global recession reducing safe-haven demand) could push the ratio toward 30 oz, but no headline points to such a move.
- • The 10 oz outcome could lose its lead if Bitcoin adoption accelerates or gold demand falters, but recent news (e.g., the Darden Report on gold payments, May 26) suggests gold's utility is expanding, not shrinking.
What to watch
- • Any Fed interest-rate decision or quantitative-easing announcement (next FOMC meeting likely in late July 2026) could shift the gold-Bitcoin ratio; a dovish surprise would likely boost Bitcoin and push odds toward 30 oz.
- • A major Bitcoin halving or regulatory approval (e.g., a US Bitcoin ETF expansion) would be a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, potentially lifting the 30 oz probability.
- • A geopolitical crisis or inflation spike (e.g., from ongoing conflicts) would likely favor gold over Bitcoin, reinforcing the 10 oz outcome.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Myriad’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved on-chain per the rules written into each market (stablecoin-settled). On-chain settlement is transparent but, like any market, only as good as the rules it was written with.
Resolution criteria
### **Market Details:** - **Market Close:** This market will only be closed once a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined as soon as an outcome is reached. - **Market Targets:** - **10 oz Target:** 1 Bitcoin = 10.0000 ounces of Gold. - **30 oz Target**: 1 Bitcoin = 30.0000 ounces of Gold. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - The market resolves based on which condition is met first: - **“30 oz”** if the Bitcoin to Gold Ratio on Longterm Trends reaches or exceeds the 30 oz Target. - **“10 oz”** if the Bitcoin to Gold Ratio on Longterm Trends drops to equal or below the 10 oz Target. ### **Resolution Details:** The market resolves based on the Bitcoin to Gold Ratio Chart (logarithmic scale) on Longterm Trends, specifically: - 1-Year view ("1y"). - Bitcoin / Gold ratio in ounces for each day Only the “Bitcoin / Gold Ratio” value as quoted by Longterm Trends will be considered. ### **Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:** - The Bitcoin / Gold Ratio on Longterm Trends is suspended or becomes unreliable. - The Longterm Trends platform is unavailable or experiences significant disruptions. - Any circumstance prevents reliable price tracking. - Myriad Markets undergoes a change in its contract that demands a cancellation of all active markets, or a similar significant technical change. In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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