Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
The market sees a 0% chance of WTI hitting $20 in July 2026 because a flood of returning Iranian oil and eased Hormuz tensions have already pushed prices to four-month lows, but the floor is far above $20 due to production costs and OPEC+ discipline.
What's driving it
- • Oil prices hit a four-month low as US-Iran talks eased supply fears and Hormuz flows returned (MSN, Jul 3; Reuters, Jun 26).
- • Crude oil futures hit a four-month low as production surged (FXEmpire, Jul 2).
- • Oil prices fell to pre-war levels on rising Middle East supply, with 150 million barrels of Iranian oil hitting the market (Al Jazeera, Jun 25; 24/7 Wall St., Jun 29).
The case for YES
- • A sudden geopolitical shock—like a new blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or a major supply disruption—could theoretically crash prices if it triggers a demand collapse, but no such event is visible in recent headlines.
- • If global recession fears intensify sharply and demand evaporates, WTI could approach $20, but current data shows supply increases, not demand destruction, driving the recent decline.
- • The market's 0% odds reflect extreme confidence, but tail-risk events (e.g., a black swan financial crisis) are always possible; however, no catalyst for such a scenario is present in the provided news.
The case for NO
- • Oil prices are already at four-month lows near $70-80, and the return of Iranian supply has been absorbed without a crash, indicating a floor well above $20 (MSN, Jul 3; FXEmpire, Jul 2).
- • Production costs for most major oil producers are above $20, making sustained prices at that level unprofitable and unlikely without a catastrophic demand collapse not seen in current headlines.
- • The resolution requires a 1-minute candle to hit $20 during July, which would need a sudden, extreme drop from current levels—no recent news suggests such a move is plausible.
What to watch
- • Any new US-Iran nuclear deal announcement or further easing of sanctions could add more supply, pushing prices lower but still far from $20 (direction: slightly lower odds for Yes).
- • OPEC+ meeting or production decision in July could either cut output to support prices or increase it, but current headlines show supply rising, not falling (direction: lower odds for Yes if cuts announced).
- • A major economic data release (e.g., US jobs or GDP) signaling recession could accelerate demand fears, but even then, a drop to $20 would require an unprecedented shock (direction: slightly higher odds for Yes, but still negligible).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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