Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 9% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 9% right now.
Despite oil surging to a six-week high above $90 amid escalating Iran tensions and Red Sea disruptions, the market sees only a 10% chance of hitting $100 in July because the remaining calendar days are few and the additional $10 rally would require an extreme, unprecedented acceleration from current levels.
📊 Base rate: Since 2010, WTI crude oil has traded above $100 in only about 15% of months, and intra-month spikes of $10 or more from a mid-$90s level have occurred in fewer than 5% of months.
What's driving it
- • The odds dropped 13 points in 24 hours and 7 points in 7 days, likely because the rally to $90 (investingLive, Jul 23) already priced in much of the Iran/Red Sea risk premium, leaving little room for another $10 jump in the final days of July.
- • Headlines show oil hitting a six-week high and Brent at a three-month high (The Times of India, Jul 23), but the market may be pricing that the conflict escalation is already reflected and further near-term catalysts are lacking.
- • Rising mortgage rates and a stronger dollar (HousingWire, investingLive, Jul 23) create headwinds for oil demand, countering the supply-side bullishness from geopolitical tensions.
The case for YES
- • If the Iran conflict or Red Sea disruptions suddenly escalate further—e.g., a direct strike on a major oil facility or a blockade—WTI could spike $10 in a single session, as oil markets are prone to sharp, panic-driven moves.
- • The 1-minute candle resolution means a brief intraday spike, even if unsustainable, would suffice; a flash rally triggered by a false alarm or algorithm could hit $100 without a sustained fundamental shift.
- • Brent already hit a three-month high (The Times of India, Jul 23), and WTI often lags or catches up rapidly; a catch-up rally could push WTI through $100 if Brent continues surging.
The case for NO
- • With only about 6 trading days left in July, WTI would need to rally roughly 11% from $90 in a very short window, which is historically rare without a major new catalyst—and the recent headlines suggest the current escalation is already priced in.
- • The 24-hour odds drop of 13 points indicates traders are rapidly losing confidence that the current geopolitical premium will expand further, and the dollar and bond yield strength (investingLive, Jul 23) are acting as dampeners.
- • The resolution rule excludes after-hours or illiquid sessions, and the active month contract may not see a $100 print if the rally fizzles or if the contract rolls before the end of July.
What to watch
- • Any official U.S. or Iranian military statement or action in the next 5 days (e.g., a strike on tankers or a Strait of Hormuz closure) would sharply increase Yes odds.
- • Weekly EIA crude inventory data (typically Wednesday) showing a larger-than-expected draw could add bullish momentum, but a build would reinforce the No case.
- • A sudden de-escalation announcement or ceasefire talks would crater Yes odds, as the risk premium would unwind rapidly.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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