Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?
77¢Yes
Price history builds as this market trades.
No price history yet
Yes
77¢
No
23¢
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 77% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 77% right now.
StatusOpen
ClosesFeb 1, 2040 · 13y
Total volumeⱮ587
Liquidity
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Closes Feb 1, 2040 (13y)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
Futuur
Open
Next target for the US interest rate (July)
Maintain the same rate79¢
4 outcomes
$1.6K Vol 3pts2d