Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026?

93¢S&P500 ≥ 6000

Price history builds as this market trades.

No price history yet

S&P500 ≥ 600093%

S&P500 ≥ 650085%

S&P500 ≥ 700071%

S&P500 ≥ 750050%

S&P500 ≥ 800033%

S&P500 ≥ 850014%

1 more6%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: S&P500 ≥ 6000 at about a 93% chance — very likely.

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StatusOpen

ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 5mo

Total volumeⱮ15.8K

Liquidity

Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

Discussion

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

At the close of December 31st 2026, will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to the amount listed in each market? I will use https://finance.yahoo.com/ as the official record to resolve the market.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Manifold ↗