Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Andy Burnham at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
The prediction market heavily favors Andy Burnham as the next UK Prime Minister with a 97% probability, far ahead of Angela Rayner, Al Carns, Rachel Reeves, Ed Miliband, and Nigel Farage. These odds imply that the market sees Burnham as the overwhelming frontrunner, while the other candidates are considered longshots with combined probabilities of just 3% or less each.
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
Before 2030
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.