Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Across venues
PredictionHub ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
Summary
The market heavily favors NO at 97%, indicating low confidence that Strait of Hormuz traffic will normalize by end of June. Tensions in the region, including recent Iran-UK disputes and naval incidents, continue to disrupt shipping. However, diplomatic efforts and global pressure could still lead to a resolution, keeping a small possibility for YES.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.