Will China invade Taiwan before July?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Summary
The market asks whether China will invade Taiwan before July 2026, with odds at 1% Yes and 99% No. The resolution criteria require a clear military offensive with territorial intent, excluding grey-zone activities. The extreme odds reflect a strong consensus against such an event in the near term.
How it resolves
Resolved on-chain per the rules written into each market (stablecoin-settled). On-chain settlement is transparent but, like any market, only as good as the rules it was written with.
Resolution criteria
### Market Dates: - **Market Period:** From the market’s publication date to June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC. ### **Yes/No Criteria:** - Resolves to “Yes” if during the Market Period, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) commences a military offensive intended to gain control over territory administered by the Republic of China (Taiwan) — including the main island of Taiwan or any inhabited outlying islands — in a manner consistent with a military invasion or assault. - “*Commences a military offensive*” refers to the initiation of coordinated armed force with the demonstrable intent to seize, occupy, or control territory, and does not include military exercises, airspace incursions, naval patrols, cyber operations, or other grey-zone activities that do not involve territorial seizure. - Resolves to “No” if this does not occur during the Market Period. ### **Resolution Sources:** - Primary resolution sources include official statements or confirmations from: - **People’s Republic of China (State Council / Ministry of National Defense):** <https://english.www.gov.cn/> - **Taiwan – Ministry of National Defense:** <https://www.mnd.gov.tw/en> - **United Nations (official statements, Security Council briefings):** <https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en> - Secondary confirmation may come from consensus reporting by major international news organizations, including: - **Reuters:** <https://www.reuters.com/> - **Associated Press:** <https://apnews.com/> - **BBC News:** <https://www.bbc.com/news> - Only reporting that clearly establishes both timing and territorial intent will be considered valid for resolution — specifically, the timing must confirm that the event occurred during the Market Period. ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - All listed resolution sources become unavailable or unreliable. - Any situation arises that makes it impossible to concl
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
Data from Myriad’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.