Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Jay Clayton at about a 81% chance — likely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
The prediction market strongly favors former SEC Chair Jay Clayton as Trump's next Director of National Intelligence, with an 80% probability, while Aaron Lukas trails at 13% and other candidates each have single-digit odds. These odds suggest a clear consensus among traders, likely reflecting Clayton's background and potential alignment with the administration's priorities, though uncertainties remain regarding other candidates. The market's distribution implies that alternative choices like Bill Pulte, Mike Flynn, John Ratcliffe, and Richard Grenell are seen as considerably less likely outcomes.
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
Before January 20th, 2029
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.