How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: $0 / No Acquisition at about a 82% chance — likely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
The prediction market heavily favors no acquisition of Greenland by the US, with an 82% probability assigned to that outcome. Smaller probabilities are distributed across various price ranges, with the highest among them being $600 billion to $899 billion at 5%, indicating some belief in a high-cost purchase but overall low confidence in any acquisition.
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
During Trump's term
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.