Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

🗂 Part of event: Fed decision in Oct 2026? →

2¢Yes

8% 1 pts all-time

Yes

2¢

98¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesOct 28, 2026 · 3mo

Total volume$3.3K

Open interest$3K

ListedSep 29, 2025

Source

Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

Discussion

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How it resolves

Regulated exchangeSettled by Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)

Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.

Closes Oct 28, 2026 (3mo)

Resolution criteria

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Kalshi ↗