Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting?

🗂 Part of event: Fed decision in Jul 2026? →

1¢Yes

1% 0 pts all-time

Yes

1¢

99¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesJul 29, 2026 · 15d

Total volume$2.4M

24h volume$543K

Open interest$2.2M

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How it resolves

Regulated exchangeSettled by Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)

Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.

Closes Jul 29, 2026 (15d)

Resolution criteria

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Kalshi ↗