New York City Daily Temperature High — contract UHLGA_062326_73
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
Summary
This contract pays out if the daily high temperature in New York City on June 23, 2026, reaches 73°F or higher, with current odds heavily favoring Yes at 98%. The market reflects a strong consensus that the temperature will meet or exceed this threshold, likely due to historical climate patterns and short-term forecasts. However, the 2% chance for No accounts for potential cold anomalies or forecast errors.
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.