World prediction markets
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
25,806 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 18 of 417
Highest temperature in Las Vegas on Jul 26, 2026?
6 outcomes
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
25,806 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 18 of 417
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 51% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Yes ≈ 60% chance
11 outcomes
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 71% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Yes ≈ 15% chance
The field is concentrated on a cool outcome (21°C and below sum to 85%), driven by recent weather whiplash: a record-breaking May heatwave (Xinhua, May 22) was followed by a historic April snowstorm (The Moscow Times, Apr 27) and a late-spring snowstorm (The Moscow Times, May 19), suggesting persistent instability that pulls expectations toward the cooler end of the climatological range for late July.
11 outcomes
The market is betting almost unanimously that Eliezer Yudkowsky will win his bet that UFOs will not be revealed to have a paradigm-altering origin, reflecting a deep skepticism among participants that any government or whistleblower evidence will break the decades-long pattern of prosaic explanations.
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance