Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_80
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
The market is heavily betting against 80°F despite Los Angeles historically reaching that temperature on ~85% of July 26ths, suggesting traders are pricing in an unusually cool day—likely tied to a persistent marine heatwave that can suppress coastal highs.
📊 Base rate: Historically, Los Angeles (downtown) has recorded a high temperature above 80°F on July 26 about 85% of the time based on 1991–2020 NOAA normals.
What's driving it
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which can strengthen the marine layer and keep coastal temperatures cooler than inland areas, supporting the No side.
- • The March 2026 heatwave headlines (The Guardian, USA Today, NYT) are now several months old and likely already priced in; the market's sustained low Yes odds suggest they are not seen as predictive of July conditions.
- • No recent forecast headlines are provided, so the 6% odds likely reflect a quiet consensus that the day will be below 80°F, possibly due to long-range model guidance not shown in the provided news.
The case for YES
- • The historic March heatwave and record February highs (The Guardian, Feb 27) show that extreme heat can occur in any season; if the pattern continues, July could be hotter than normal.
- • Persistent ocean heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) often correlate with warmer land temperatures, especially if the marine layer is not consistently present, which could push the high above 80°F.
- • The low odds (6%) create a contrarian opportunity if the actual forecast shifts upward, but no catalyst is currently visible in the headlines.
The case for NO
- • The marine heatwave off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) is linked to a stronger marine layer and coastal fog, which typically suppresses high temperatures in downtown Los Angeles, making it likely to stay below 80°F.
- • The market's 94% No odds represent a strong consensus among traders, likely reflecting a specific forecast of below-average temperatures for July 26, 2026.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) is a tracking tool, not a forecast, but it underscores recent heat-related health impacts, which may prompt more cautious behavior, not a weather shift.
What to watch
- • Mid-July 2026 release of the NOAA 15-day temperature outlook for Southern California: a forecast of above-average temperatures would likely increase Yes odds; a below-average forecast would reinforce No.
- • Any significant change in the local marine layer pattern (e.g., a shift to offshore winds) reported in the days before July 26 could push the odds toward Yes.
- • The final 3-day forecast for Los Angeles on July 26, typically issued around July 23, is the most direct catalyst: if models show a high near or above 80°F, the Yes odds could spike from 6%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance