When will Starship flight 14 happen?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Before 2027-04-01 at about a 95% chance — almost certain.
The field is extremely front-loaded: the top candidate (before 2027-04-01) commands 95% odds, and all ten candidates above 5% stack into the next nine months, reflecting a market consensus that Flight 14 is imminent but not immediate. The largest recent shift is the collapse of near-term dates after the July 17 abort, when the 'before 2026-10-01' candidate dropped from ~80% to 71% following a second launch abort.
📊 Base rate: Omit — grounding a historical prior for Starship flight intervals is not possible from provided data.
What's driving it
- • SpaceX's Flight 13 attempt aborted on July 17 when multiple engines failed to start (Florida Today, Jul 17), directly pushing the expected timeline for Flight 14 further out.
- • The July 23 Florida Today report that the next Starship test could bring its Florida debut a step closer signals progress toward launch infrastructure at Cape Canaveral, which could enable a faster turnaround.
- • The FAA cleared SpaceX to fly again on July 13 after the May booster failure (TechCrunch, Jul 13), removing a regulatory obstacle that had been holding up the launch sequence.
- • The July 17 abort was preceded by a similar abort on July 16 at the last second (space.com, Jul 16), suggesting repeated technical problems that erode confidence in an immediate launch.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The top candidate (before 2027-04-01) at 95% benefits from the cumulative probability of multiple launch windows over nine months, making failure to launch by then highly unlikely given SpaceX's history of rapid flight cadence (12 flights in ~16 months).
- • The FAA clearance on July 13 (TechCrunch, Jul 13) and the Florida infrastructure progress (Florida Today, Jul 23) together reduce the biggest unknown—regulatory and site readiness—giving the long end of the curve a solid foundation.
- • The market heavily weights the more distant dates because the July abort proved the next launch is not days away, but the mission is still expected within months, not years.
Why it's still open
- • The 71% odds on 'before 2026-10-01' are surprisingly low given that Flight 13's abort does not imply a fatal flaw—a hardware fix could still allow a launch within two months, as SpaceX has done after past aborts.
- • A single successful static fire test or engine replacement could rapidly collapse the odds on later dates into the near-term candidates, since the market has already discounted a quick turnaround after two aborts.
- • If SpaceX decides to prioritize the Florida launch site (Florida Today, Jul 23) over a full repair at the Texas facility, the launch could shift to a later state but earlier than the 2027-04-01 boundary, reshuffling the order within the front-runner range.
What to watch
- • A successful static fire test of the Flight 13 vehicle (likely within days or weeks) would push odds toward earlier dates—before 2026-10-01 or before 2026-11-01—as it would signal hardware readiness.
- • An official announcement of the Flight 14 mission date or of a Florida launch site debut (Florida Today, Jul 23) would collapse odds into that specific window, away from the blanket 2027 dates.
- • Another abort or an explosion during a static fire test would drive odds sharply toward the 2027-04-01 boundary and beyond, repeating the pattern seen after the July abort.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The dates of the last few flights are: Flight 7: 2025-01-16 Flight 8: 2025-03-06 Flight 9: 2025-05-27 Flight 10: 2025-08-26 Flight 11: 2025-10-13 Flight 12: 2026-05-22 Flight 13: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-13-happen Flight 15: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-15-happen-9sz26lROnl
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