Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

✨ The market is pricing a 64% chance of hitting 3,500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026, a level not seen since the early 1990s, driven by a series of localized outbreaks and falling vaccination rates in specific communities, but the bar remains historically high given the country's overall high immunization coverage.

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Yes ≈ 100% chance

Yes ≈ 100% chance

Yes ≈ 100% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ Despite global outbreaks and local vaccination gaps, the U.S. has not seen a nationwide surge, but the recent 4-point uptick in Yes odds reflects growing concern that imported cases and low vaccination rates in pockets could combine to produce a historically large outbreak.

Yes ≈ 12% chance

✨ The market is heavily pricing against 12,500 U.S. measles cases in 2026 because the threshold is roughly ten times the record high of 1,282 cases in 2019, and while multiple U.S. outbreaks have been reported this year, none have approached the scale needed to push the total that high.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Yes ≈ 35% chance