Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? — ↑ $95
Oil has already surged past $90 on escalating Iran and Red Sea tensions, but the remaining $5 to $95 is a steep ask in a single week, making the 24% odds a reflection of both the momentum and the high bar.
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? — ↑ $100
Despite oil surging to a six-week high above $90 amid escalating Iran tensions and Red Sea disruptions, the market sees only a 10% chance of hitting $100 in July because the remaining calendar days are few and the additional $10 rally would require an extreme, unprecedented acceleration from current levels.
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Largest Company end of July?
The field is highly concentrated on NVIDIA at 77%, but the long tail of 23 candidates above 5% suggests that a sudden shift in market sentiment or a major corporate event could still reshuffle the top ranks, especially given the lack of recent headlines directly affecting the leaders.
29 outcomes
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
The field is extremely concentrated on zero cuts (85%), with the only notable recent shift being a +1 point increase for the no-cut scenario, likely driven by hawkish Fed signals ahead of this week's FOMC meeting (WSJ, Jul 19; WaPo, Jul 17).
13 outcomes
Fed rate hike in 2026?
The sharp 7-day rise in rate-hike odds reflects a market pricing in a later-in-2026 hike, not necessarily July, driven by oil-price inflation fears and Chair Warsh's hawkish stance, even as immediate July-hike expectations collapsed after his testimony.
Yes ≈ 72% chance
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July? — ↑ $130
The market sees zero probability of WTI hitting $130 in July 2026, as OPEC+ output hikes and easing geopolitical tensions keep prices near $70, with no plausible catalyst for a near-doubling in the remaining weeks.
Yes ≈ 0% chance