Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 24% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 24% right now.
Oil surged to a six-week high of $90 on Iran tensions, but the probability of hitting $95 collapsed 34 points in a day as the rally stalled and demand fears resurfaced, leaving the market betting the current geopolitical premium is insufficient for another $5 leap in July's final days.
📊 Base rate: Since the start of 2023, WTI crude oil has touched $95 in only about 5% of months, making the current 21% odds slightly elevated by historical norms.
What's driving it
- • WTI hit $90 for the first time in six weeks on July 23 as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated (investingLive, Jul 23), but that still leaves a $5 gap to $95 with under two weeks left in July.
- • The Yes probability dropped 34 points in 24 hours, suggesting the market saw the rally as exhausted or insufficient to sustain a further run to $95.
- • Mortgage rates hitting a yearly high (HousingWire, Jul 23) and a stronger dollar (investingLive) signal demand-side headwinds that cap upside for crude.
The case for YES
- • Further escalation in the Iran conflict, especially any disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger a panic bid that overshoots $95 within days.
- • Brent already reached a three-month high (The Times of India, Jul 23), and if that momentum pulls WTI higher, the $5 target is plausible given the volatility of geopolitical spikes.
- • At only 21% odds, the market is pricing a relatively low probability, meaning any sudden supply shock could cause a rapid repricing to 50% or higher.
The case for NO
- • WTI needs a ~6% rally from $90 to $95 in the final week of July, a large move that typically requires a fresh catalyst, not just lingering tensions.
- • The 34-point one-day drop in Yes odds reflects traders' conviction that the current rally has already peaked, with sellers stepping in near $90.
- • Rising mortgage rates and a strong dollar (HousingWire, investingLive, Jul 23) point to economic cooling, which historically damps oil demand and limits price surges.
What to watch
- • Next week's EIA crude inventory report: a larger-than-expected draw would boost Yes odds; a build would reinforce the No case.
- • Any new diplomatic overtures or ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran would sharply lower Yes odds toward zero.
- • A military incident in the Red Sea or near Hormuz (e.g., a tanker attack) would immediately spike Yes odds above 50%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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