Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
The market is pricing a ~0% chance of WTI hitting $30 in July 2026, reflecting that recent supply surges and geopolitical easing have only pushed prices to four-month lows, far above the $30 threshold. The real story is not demand collapse but the massive, coordinated return of Iranian and other Middle Eastern oil, which analysts warn may be temporary before OPEC+ discipline returns.
What's driving it
- • Oil prices hit a four-month low on July 3 as US-Iran talks and Hormuz flows eased supply fears, but WTI is still well above $30, keeping the 'No' odds at 100% (MSN, Jul 3).
- • A surge in production and the return of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz have added ~150 million barrels of Iranian oil to the market, yet prices have only receded to pre-war levels, not collapsed to below $30 (Al Jazeera, Jun 25; 24/7 Wall St., Jun 29).
- • No recent headline or data point suggests a supply or demand shock large enough to push WTI below $30; the odds reflect that a ~$40+ drop from current levels in July is outside any recent observed move.
The case for YES
- • A sudden OPEC+ decision to flood the market with even more supply, combined with a global demand shock (e.g., a major recession or renewed lockdowns), could cause a panic sell-off to $30.
The case for NO
- • Current supply increases are already priced in and have only brought WTI to multi-month lows, not below $30; a further ~$40 drop would require an unprecedented negative demand event that no headline supports.
- • The return of Iranian crude is seen as a one-time wave rather than a sustained flood, with analysts warning that cheap oil may not last, suggesting prices will stabilize or rebound, not crash further (24/7 Wall St., Jun 29).
- • With one-minute candle resolution, even a temporary flash crash below $30 would need to happen during an active trading session; current volatility and structure make that extremely unlikely given the massive gap from current prices.
What to watch
- • July 2026 OPEC+ meeting: any surprise decision to increase quotas could push prices lower (direction: lower, but still likely not to $30).
- • Weekly US inventory reports (EIA) for July: a massive unexpected build could accelerate the downtrend (direction: lower, still far from trigger).
- • Iran nuclear deal or sanctions waiver news: further easing of sanctions would add supply and put downward pressure (direction: lower, but likely insufficient for $30 trigger).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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