Who will be elected New Zealand Prime Minister in the next election?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Chris Hipkins at about a 52% chance — a coin toss.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
The market indicates a close race between Christopher Luxon (46%) and Chris Hipkins (44%), with a small chance for other candidates (6%) or Winston Peters (4%). These odds suggest the election is highly competitive, with neither major candidate holding a decisive advantage. The low probability for other outcomes implies the race is primarily a two-way contest.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.