Which Party will in the 2026 Maine Gubernatorial election?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Democrats at about a 86% chance — very likely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
The prediction market heavily favors the Democratic Party winning the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election, with odds at 86% compared to 14% for the Republican Party. This suggests that market participants view a Democratic victory as highly likely, though it does not account for potential shifts in voter sentiment or unforeseen events before the election. The 0% probability assigned to other parties indicates the market sees no realistic chance of a third-party or independent candidate winning.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.