Brazil’s Next President Elect

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Lula at about a 55% chance — more likely than not.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The prediction market for Brazil's next president currently shows Lula as the leading candidate with 55% probability, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 29%. Other contenders, including Aldo Rebelo, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Ronaldo Caiado, each have less than 6% chance. These odds suggest a strong preference for Lula but still leave considerable uncertainty, as Bolsonaro holds a notable minority share.