CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 39% chance — less likely than not.
Across venues
· updated 1hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 3 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Prediction markets collectively imply about a 38% chance the Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026, with very close agreement across venues.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 39% right now.
The CLARITY Act faces a 39% chance of passage despite advancing in the House subcommittee, as the market weighs the crypto industry's push against a fundamental legislative impasse over rules to prevent the president from profiting from digital assets.
What's driving it
- • House subcommittee advancement on July 25 (Legis1) provides a concrete positive step, but the market remains skeptical due to unresolved debates.
- • Concerns over presidential self-dealing, highlighted by the New York Times on July 22 and Forbes on July 23, create a major hurdle that overshadows procedural progress.
- • Bitcoin price drop on July 25 (Benzinga) amid ETF outflows tied to CLARITY Act uncertainty reflects broader market sentiment that passage is not assured.
The case for YES
- • The bill has cleared its first House committee hurdle, indicating bipartisan momentum and a legislative path forward.
- • Crypto industry lobbying is intense, and lawmakers may reach a compromise on the presidential conflict-of-interest rules to secure passage.
- • The bill's supporters argue that market structure clarity is urgent, potentially pushing Congress to act before year-end despite current disagreements.
The case for NO
- • The core dispute over rules to prevent a president from selling coins has no clear resolution, and the New York Times (Jul 22) reports the bill is 'mired' in that debate.
- • The American Prospect (Jul 24) notes a 'lack of CLARITY', suggesting fundamental flaws in the bill that may prevent it from gaining enough votes.
- • With only months left in the 2026 legislative session, the calendar is tight, and unresolved partisan issues could kill the bill in committee or on the floor.
What to watch
- • House Agriculture Committee markup expected in August 2026 – a positive outcome would boost Yes odds, while a failure or delay would push them lower.
- • Senate Banking Committee consideration possibly in September 2026 – if the bill advances there, odds rise; if it stalls, odds drop substantially.
- • Year-end 2026 – if the bill is not passed by the end of the session, it will die, sharply reducing Yes odds to near zero.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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