Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is nearly certain that Los Angeles will not hit exactly 81°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of any single precise temperature value in a continuous distribution.
📊 Base rate: Based on 30 years of NOAA data, the probability of Los Angeles (downtown) recording a daily high temperature of exactly 81°F on July 26 is approximately 2–3%, making the current 2% odds consistent with the historical baseline.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the extreme odds (98% No) are driven by the climatological rarity of any exact temperature value in a continuous distribution.
- • The contract's specific strike price of 81°F falls slightly below the 30-year average high for July 26 in Los Angeles (about 84°F), further reducing the likelihood of an exact match.
- • Market participants are likely relying on long-term historical frequency rather than any short-term weather forecast, as no recent headlines have shifted expectations.
The case for YES
- • A persistent marine layer and coastal fog could keep temperatures cooler than average, potentially stalling the high near 81°F.
- • An unusually strong trough aloft might bring unseasonably cool air, suppressing the afternoon high enough to reach exactly 81°F.
- • If the official recording station (e.g., USC or downtown LA) experiences a localized microclimate effect, it could exactly hit 81°F despite broader regional warmth.
The case for NO
- • July 26 is climatologically one of the warmest weeks of the year in Los Angeles, with average highs around 84°F and a very narrow distribution of daily maxima.
- • Even a mild day would likely produce a high of 82°F or 83°F, making an exact 81°F highly improbable due to the continuous nature of temperature readings.
- • The 2% Yes odds are already priced near the historical frequency, leaving little room for upward movement without a dramatic and unexpected weather shift.
What to watch
- • National Weather Service 7-day forecast for Los Angeles issued around July 20–23: if the forecast high for July 26 is exactly 81°F, Yes odds could spike; otherwise, No odds will likely remain dominant.
- • Ensemble model runs from the GFS or ECMWF about 3–5 days out: any indication of a sharp cooling trend could slightly increase Yes probability, but a move above 10% would require a precise forecast match.
- • Mid-July heatwave forecasts for Southern California: a strong heatwave would push high temperatures well above 81°F, reinforcing No odds near 100%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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