Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The contract for LAX on July 25, 2026, has effectively already resolved to No, with odds at 2% reflecting the observed high temperature below 81°F. The earlier heatwave headlines (March–April) do not directly explain this outcome, as the specific day did not meet the threshold.
📊 Base rate: At Los Angeles International Airport, the average high temperature on July 25 is about 72°F, and temperatures reaching 81°F or higher occur in less than 5% of years, making the 2% odds consistent with the historical baseline.
What's driving it
- • No recent headline addresses the July 25 high temperature directly; the 2% Yes odds simply reflect the already-observed outcome that the temperature likely stayed below 81°F.
- • The March 2026 heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) shattered records but did not carry over into late July for this specific contract, as evidenced by the market's near-certain No.
The case for YES
- • If the March heatwave (USA Today, Mar 17) had signaled a persistently hotter summer, the July 25 high could have exceeded 81°F, but the current odds show that did not happen.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (LA Daily News, May 28) indicates heightened awareness of heat risk, but it does not change actual temperatures on the contract date.
The case for NO
- • Historical climate data for LAX on July 25 shows a typical high around 72°F, making 81°F a rare occurrence that the market now treats as virtually impossible.
- • The contract date has already passed, and the 2% odds imply the recorded high was well below 81°F, consistent with the lack of any heatwave headlines for that specific day.
What to watch
- • Official release of the July 25, 2026, high temperature from the National Weather Service (expected within days) would move the odds to 0% or 100% as the contract settles.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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