SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 2.0T+ at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
The field is fully concentrated on the 2.0T+ strike, reflecting the market's effective resolution after SpaceX's IPO day closed at a $2 trillion market cap, making the lower strike a zero-probability outcome.
What's driving it
- • SpaceX's IPO on June 13, 2026, saw the stock close at a $2 trillion market cap, instantly setting the upper strike as the only plausible outcome (CNBC, Jun 13).
- • The subsequent 40%+ stock decline and $1 trillion loss reported by Business Insider (Jul 17) do not affect the market's settlement, which is based on the IPO closing price, not current trading.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The 2.0T+ strike is at 100% because the IPO-day closing market cap was confirmed above $2 trillion (CNBC, Jun 13).
- • The Fortune article (Jun 16) highlights how the surging stock was used to acquire Cursor, reinforcing the high valuation at IPO.
- • The lower strike (<1.0T) is at 0% because the market cap never fell below that threshold on the relevant closing date.
Why it's still open
- • The field is not open: the market has effectively resolved with only one possible outcome.
- • No candidate can overtake the 2.0T+ strike because the event has already occurred and the lower strike was never realized.
- • The only way the field could open is if the market's settlement rule is reinterpreted, which is not indicated.
What to watch
- • No future catalysts can reshape this race because the underlying event (IPO closing price) is already settled.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from InsightX’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by the source platform according to the rules written into this specific market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on InsightX ↗Related markets
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