How markets resolve
The #1 beginner gotcha: a market settles under its own rules, which can lag what looks decided on TV.
Settlement isn't the news
The most common surprise: a market can look “over” on television while the contract is still open. Each market resolves under its own written rules and a specific source of truth — not the headlines.
Every venue settles differently
Polymarket settles via UMA's optimistic oracle (a proposed result can be disputed in a challenge window). Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, settles against an official named source with a review committee. Manifold markets are resolved by their creator. PredictionHub explains the exact model on every market's “How it resolves” panel.
Read the resolution criteria
Before trusting a price, skim the resolution criteria and close date. The fine print — edge cases, the named data source, the dispute process — is what actually determines the payout.