Why do different venues disagree?
The same question can be priced differently on Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold — here's why, and what Consensus does.
Same question, different prices
Polymarket might price an outcome at 62% while Kalshi has 58% and Manifold 65%. Differences come from each venue's audience, liquidity, fees, and how its contract is worded — even small wording changes can move the number.
Real money vs play money
Some venues use real money (Polymarket, Kalshi), some use play money (Manifold's Mana). Play-money markets are still useful crowd forecasts, but they're not directly comparable to real-money depth — which is why we label and weight them differently.
What “Consensus” means here
PredictionHub matches the same question across venues and publishes one liquidity-weighted blended probability — the PredictionHub Consensus — plus the spread between venues. It's a single, neutral number that no individual platform can give you.