Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Yes ≈ 100% chance

Yes ≈ 100% chance

✨ The Israel-Iran ceasefire held through July 22, 2026, despite concurrent U.S.-Iran hostilities and a history of brinkmanship, as neither side launched a qualifying air or missile strike during the period.

Yes ≈ 100% chance

✨ The market's near-certain 99% 'Yes' price reflects that no qualifying military action has been reported on the resolution date and that recent diplomatic signals—Iran's secret ceasefire proposal and a US House vote to limit war—reinforce restraint, but the day is not over and a last-minute strike could still reverse the outcome.

Yes ≈ 100% chance

✨ The odds have surged on Iran's secret 10-day ceasefire proposal and the absence of major violations, but the underlying US-Iran military confrontation continues, making the ceasefire fragile.

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Yes ≈ 100% chance

✨ The market has already resolved to 100% Yes because the ceasefire between Israel and Iran held through the July 24 deadline, with no qualifying military actions reported in the final days.

Yes ≈ 100% chance

✨ The market is pricing a near-certain ceasefire continuation, but the real story is that this high confidence rests on a fragile, secret 10-day truce proposal submitted by Iran under heavy US military pressure, not on a durable bilateral agreement.

Yes ≈ 98% chance

Yes ≈ 96% chance

Yes ≈ 93% chance

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Yes ≈ 88% chance