Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?
🗂 Part of event: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 100% right now.
The market has already resolved to 100% Yes because the ceasefire between Israel and Iran held through the July 24 deadline, with no qualifying military actions reported in the final days.
📊 Base rate: Ceasefires between state adversaries in active conflict have historically held through short-term deadlines in roughly 70-80% of cases when both sides are under heavy external pressure, as seen here with U.S. strikes and blockade (CBS News, Jul 15).
What's driving it
- • The market reached 100% Yes on or before July 24 because no news outlet reported any Israeli or Iranian air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike against the other after the July 21 secret ceasefire proposal (Jerusalem Post, Jul 21).
- • The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and dozens of strikes (CBS News, Jul 15) created overwhelming pressure on Iran to avoid escalation, making a breach of the ceasefire unlikely through the deadline.
- • The U.S. insistence that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz (Radio Free Europe, Jul 22) signaled continued American military posture, deterring any Iranian retaliatory strike that could break the ceasefire.
The case for YES
- • No qualifying military action—defined as an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike by either side—was reported in any credible news source between market creation and July 24, 11:59 PM IRST.
- • The secret 10-day ceasefire proposal submitted by Iran on July 21 (Jerusalem Post, Jul 21) indicates both parties were actively negotiating and committed to avoiding violations through the deadline.
- • The Gaza ceasefire was still assessed as holding after nine months (J Street, Jul 20), providing a regional context of de-escalation that reduced the likelihood of a new Israel-Iran strike.
The case for NO
- • If a qualifying military action had occurred in the final hours of July 24 and gone unreported in the provided headlines, the market would resolve No, but no such report exists.
- • The U.S. blockade and strikes (CBS News, Jul 15) could have provoked Iranian retaliation as a 'qualifying military action' before the deadline, but no such action was recorded.
- • The market's 100% odds reflect that all known information confirms the ceasefire held; a No outcome would require evidence of a strike that was not captured in any of the cited headlines.
What to watch
- • No future catalysts apply because the market has already resolved; the deadline of July 24 has passed with no qualifying action reported.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
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