When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
9 markets · 23d
✨ Ask about this eventMarkets in this event
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 15, 2026? — Before Aug 15, 2026
Traders are overwhelmingly betting that Strait of Hormuz transit traffic will stay below 60 through mid-August, reflecting a consensus that disruptions are not a short-term blip but a multi-year problem.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? — Before Dec 1, 2026
Despite moderate traffic in June and July, prediction markets are heavily betting against a sustained recovery above the 60-transit threshold by December, with multiple sources indicating the Strait of Hormuz may not return to normal until 2027.
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? — Before Nov 1, 2026
Despite initial hopes for a post-disruption rebound, persistent pessimistic predictions and moderate traffic data have driven the market heavily toward No, with traders now betting that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will not exceed 60 before November 1, 2026.
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? — Before Jul 1, 2027
Despite earlier hopes for a 2026 recovery, a fresh US-Iran faceoff has pushed the expected return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic into 2027, and the market now assigns a slight edge (55%) to transit calls exceeding 60 per day by mid-2027, reflecting cautious optimism tempered by the risk of a permanently lower 'new normal.'
Yes ≈ 56% chance
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027? — Before Apr 1, 2027
Traders are pricing a sustained recovery delay that pushes above-60 traffic past the April 2027 deadline, despite recent moderate ship counts, as the market sees no catalyst for a rapid return to normal.
Yes ≈ 50% chance
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026
Despite a slight uptick in the last 24 hours, the market remains heavily skewed toward No, reflecting a consensus that the prolonged deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz will not be resolved by the October 1 deadline, with traders pushing expectations for normalcy into 2027.
Yes ≈ 23% chance
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026
The market heavily discounts a return to normal Strait of Hormuz transit levels before September, reflecting a consensus that disruptions will persist well into 2027, with the recent slight uptick in Yes odds likely noise rather than a trend reversal.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026
The market is pricing near-zero odds of a recovery to 60 transit calls by August 1, 2026, reflecting a consensus that the Strait of Hormuz disruption will persist for at least another year, with no near-term catalyst for a rebound.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027
The market sees a 56% chance that Strait of Hormuz transit calls stay below 60 through year-end, reflecting skepticism that traffic will fully recover in 2026 after repeated setbacks, even though the waterway is technically open.
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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