Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?

What's driving it

• • Prediction markets now indicate Strait of Hormuz traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, as reported by CNBC on July 24, 2026, directly suppressing odds of a near-term recovery.
• • Odds of normal traffic this year have continued to tumble, per MSN on July 21, 2026, reinforcing the bearish sentiment and aligning with the current 1% Yes probability.
• • A CNBC report from July 8, 2026 noted that Kalshi traders predict traffic won't return to normal until 2027 after a latest setback, providing a clear timeline for prolonged disruption.
• • The June 23, 2026 report from The Institute for Energy Research that ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz is the only positive headline, but it lacks specific volume data to challenge the low odds.

What to watch

• • Any new diplomatic agreement or ceasefire announcement in the region before July 31 would likely increase Yes odds, as it could trigger an immediate resumption of normal shipping.
• • A weekly IMF PortWatch update showing a sharp uptick in transit calls above 50 would signal momentum and modestly raise Yes odds, though still far from the 60 threshold.
• • An escalation of military incidents or new sanctions in the Strait of Hormuz before August 1 would further reduce the already minimal Yes odds, reinforcing the No outcome.