Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 20% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 20% right now.
Despite a slight uptick in the last 24 hours, the market remains heavily skewed toward No, reflecting a consensus that the prolonged deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz will not be resolved by the October 1 deadline, with traders pushing expectations for normalcy into 2027.
📊 Base rate: Omitted (no defensible historical prior for the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz at 60; typical pre-crisis levels were well above 60, but the exact baseline is not available from the provided headlines).
What's driving it
- • Multiple July 8 headlines (CNBC, International Business Times, NDTV Profit) report that prediction markets now see Strait of Hormuz traffic not returning to normal until 2027, reinforcing the No side.
- • The 24-hour +1-point move toward Yes is small and lacks a clear catalyst in the provided headlines, suggesting noise rather than a fundamental shift.
- • Earlier headlines from April to June (The Guardian, Yahoo Finance UK, CNBC) consistently showed low expectations for a near-term return to normal, grounding the current 80% No probability.
The case for YES
- • If a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or temporary ceasefire allows a surge of transits, the 7-day moving average could briefly exceed 60 before October 1.
- • The market is pricing only a 20% chance, which may be too low if the IMF PortWatch data shows a short-lived spike (e.g., due to a convoy or partial reopening).
- • The recent +1pt move could indicate early speculation of a surprise deal, though no confirming headlines exist.
The case for NO
- • The overwhelming consensus from multiple July 8 headlines is that traffic will not normalize until 2027, making a sustained average above 60 by October 2026 highly unlikely.
- • The threshold of 60 likely represents a level near pre-crisis norms, and current geopolitical tensions (US-Iran faceoff, ceasefire failing to change shipping patterns) suggest prolonged disruption.
- • Even the earlier June 1 headline gave only a 26% chance of return to normal by June, and the situation has deteriorated since then, pushing the deadline further out.
What to watch
- • Any new round of US-Iran negotiations or a formal agreement to reopen the strait could move the odds up significantly (toward Yes).
- • A military escalation or a new attack on tankers in the region would likely push odds down (toward No).
- • Weekly IMF PortWatch data releases showing a sustained upward trend in transit calls could gradually increase the Yes probability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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