Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 34% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 34% right now.
Despite moderate traffic in June and July, prediction markets are heavily betting against a sustained recovery above the 60-transit threshold by December, with multiple sources indicating the Strait of Hormuz may not return to normal until 2027.
What's driving it
- • CNBC reported on July 24 that Strait of Hormuz traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, directly undermining the Yes case (CNBC, Jul 24).
- • Kalshi odds have been signaling delayed recovery, with Oz Arab Media noting on July 25 that traders expect traffic to stay below normal through 2026 (Oz Arab Media, Jul 25).
- • A July 21 MSN headline stated that odds of normal Strait traffic this year continue to tumble, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment (MSN, Jul 21).
- • The effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, reported on July 18, adds a compounding disruption that could further reduce overall regional shipping (CryptoSlate, Jul 18).
The case for YES
- • June and July saw moderate ship traffic, suggesting the baseline is not extremely low and a seasonal or diplomatic boost could push the 7-day average above 60 (Statista, Jul 21).
- • The market has until December 1, leaving several months for a sudden resolution of tensions or a surge in shipping demand to cross the threshold.
- • If the IMF PortWatch data shows a sharp upward trend in the coming weeks, the 60 threshold could be reached before the deadline.
The case for NO
- • Multiple CNBC reports from July 8 and July 24 predict that normal traffic will not return until 2027, well past the December 1 cutoff (CNBC, Jul 8; CNBC, Jul 24).
- • The consistent decline in Yes odds, as noted by MSN on July 21, indicates traders are increasingly confident that the 60 threshold will not be breached this year (MSN, Jul 21).
- • The closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (CryptoSlate, Jul 18) may reduce overall shipping through the region, making it harder for Hormuz transit calls to reach 60.
What to watch
- • Monthly IMF PortWatch traffic data releases in August, September, and October will provide concrete numbers; if the 7-day average remains below 60, No odds will strengthen, while a sudden spike could boost Yes.
- • Any diplomatic breakthrough involving Iran or regional security agreements could sharply increase Yes odds by signaling a return to normal shipping.
- • A new attack or military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or nearby chokepoints would likely push odds further toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗