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World prediction markets & live odds — page 8 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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World prediction markets

Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.

🔭 Compare world odds across venues →

All Date Threshold Markets 6382 Climate & weather 5178 Geopolitics & conflict 1654 US Election Margins 412 Global Political Shifts 317 Health 311 Commodities & energy 262 Daily Crypto Predictions 86 Fable 5 Access 59 Country Presidents 26 Esports CS2 Events 6 Discord IPO Valuation 3

1,835 markets · page 8 of 77

Manifold· Play

Open

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…678910…77Next ›

Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$23.7K Vol▼ 3pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Stephen Miller

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$66.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$1.1M Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ4.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Vladimir Padrino López

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$67.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$35.8K Vol▼ 3pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ3.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

The market heavily discounts a final nuclear deal by August 31, 2026, despite a signed interim agreement in June, because the Trump administration has introduced a new condition—Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords—and is publicly pessimistic about clinching a deal.

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$2.9M Vol1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$31.1K Vol▼ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Ukraine become an official member of NATO while it does not control all of the territory within its 1991 borders?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ577 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ587 Vol▲ 0pts14y

Polymarket

Open

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

$144K Vol▼ 1pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Other42¢

13 outcomes

Ɱ62.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?

Yes48¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

$15.2K Vol▲ 2pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Vladimir Putin live to see Ukraine join NATO?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ308 Vol▲ 0pts9y

Polymarket

Open

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

The market assigns zero probability to a permanent peace deal by July 31 because the current US-brokered ceasefire is fragile and explicitly temporary, with ongoing violations and no sign of the comprehensive negotiations needed for a lasting agreement.

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$1.2M Vol▼ 0pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2040?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ653 Vol▲ 0pts14y

Polymarket

Open

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

$6.7K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Do the recent deaths/disappearances of NASA, nuclear research, & defense-related scientists suggest something sinister?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ662 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Yes31¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

$4.4K Vol▲ 6pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By 2040, will there be a Wikipedia page about a China-India war that started after 2019?

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ181 Vol▲ 0pts13y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y