Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
The market assigns zero probability to a permanent peace deal by July 31 because the current US-brokered ceasefire is fragile and explicitly temporary, with ongoing violations and no sign of the comprehensive negotiations needed for a lasting agreement.
📊 Base rate: Since 2006, Israel and Hezbollah have not signed any permanent peace deal, and all ceasefires have been temporary arrangements that eventually broke down.
What's driving it
- • The current ceasefire, agreed on June 19, is explicitly a temporary halt to hostilities, not a permanent peace deal (Time Magazine, Jun 19).
- • Multiple ceasefire violations have occurred, including Israeli artillery fire into southern Lebanon on July 12 and an Israeli drone strike killing two on July 8, showing the truce is fragile and not leading to lasting peace (Crypto Briefing, Jul 12; Crypto Briefing, Jul 8).
- • The US-Iran ceasefire agreement, announced on June 17, is a separate track and still awaits negotiation of a permanent truce, indicating no imminent comprehensive deal between Israel and Hezbollah (Reuters, Jun 17).
The case for YES
- • If the US-brokered ceasefire were unexpectedly upgraded to a permanent agreement before July 31, the market would resolve Yes.
- • A sudden breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations could theoretically pressure Hezbollah to accept a permanent deal, though no such progress is evident.
The case for NO
- • The current ceasefire is explicitly temporary and has been violated multiple times, making a permanent deal by July 31 extremely unlikely.
- • The Lebanese army is still clearing unexploded ordnance after an Israeli exit, indicating the situation is in a post-conflict cleanup phase, not a permanent peace negotiation (Crypto Briefing, Jul 21).
- • No credible reports or diplomatic statements suggest that Israel and Hezbollah are engaged in talks for a permanent peace deal, with the focus remaining on maintaining the fragile ceasefire.
What to watch
- • Any announcement of formal peace negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah before July 31 would move odds toward Yes, but no such talks are scheduled.
- • A major ceasefire violation or escalation, such as a large-scale attack, would further cement the No outcome by showing the temporary truce is collapsing.
- • The expiration of the current ceasefire deadline (if any) without renewal would confirm the lack of progress toward a permanent deal, reinforcing No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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