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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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World prediction markets & live odds — page 3 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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World prediction markets

Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.

🔭 Compare world odds across venues →

All Date Threshold Markets 6381 Climate & weather 5169 Geopolitics & conflict 1650 US Election Margins 412 Global Political Shifts 317 Health 304 Commodities & energy 262 Daily Crypto Predictions 83 Fable 5 Access 58 Country Presidents 26 Esports CS2 Events 6 Discord IPO Valuation 3

1,831 markets · page 3 of 77

Polymarket

Open

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$39.9K Vol▼ 12pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev12345…77Next ›

Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ13.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Blue and White

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$8.9K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

$127K Vol▲ 5pts20d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

The 12% Yes odds reflect a spike after Trump declared the Iran deal 'over', but markets still view a full-scale invasion as unlikely given the enormous costs and ongoing regional conflict.

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ85.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Iran (5+ times)

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

$1.6K Vol▲ 0pts15d

Polymarket

Open

Iran full airspace closure by August 15?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$97.7K Vol▼ 16pts20d

Manifold· Play

Open

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

The market is heavily concentrated in three broad time buckets summing to 94%, but the front-runner 'Other' at 42% is a catch-all that gains share if no clear end-date consensus emerges, making the field less certain than it appears.

Other45¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ178K Vol▲ 3pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Iran / Iranian

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$1.1K Vol▼ 9pts15d

Polymarket

Open

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?

50-7450¢

5 outcomes

$111K Vol▲ 5pts14h

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Belarus join Russia willingly before the end of 2027?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ646 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?

Gadi Eisenkot50¢

12 outcomes

$112K Vol▲ 0pts18y

Manifold· Play

Open

Fedorov to announce candidacy for elections in Ukraine before 2027?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Ɱ251 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Delcy Rodríguez

Delcy Rodríguez is the de facto leader after a devastating earthquake, but her hold on power is fragile amid a humanitarian crisis and the looming return of opposition figure Maria Corina Machado, making a permanent transition to head of state by year-end unlikely.

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$1.2M Vol▲ 3pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran before September?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▼ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$543K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Venezuela / Cuba

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$942 Vol▲ 0pts15d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Polymarket

Open

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

While the June 14 framework agreement gave a formal negotiating path, the odds remain low because both sides are publicly conditioning progress on stark ultimatums—Iran demands an end to threats, Trump warns of military action—making a final deal by year-end a long shot despite the slight upward drift.

Yes31¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

$793K Vol▲ 1pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Yashar be a part of the next government in Israel?

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

$828 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will synthetic graphite active anode material (AAM) China spot price exceed 2500 USD/t on July 31, 2026?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ61 Vol▲ 0pts4d

Polymarket

Open

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?

Yes75¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

$135K Vol▲ 7pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

What will Rachel Maddow say during next Rachel Maddow Show? — Ceasefire

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$2.4K Vol▲ 1pts16d

Polymarket

Open

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$288K Vol▼ 4pts5d