Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 16% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 16% right now.
Delcy Rodríguez is the de facto leader after a devastating earthquake, but her hold on power is fragile amid a humanitarian crisis and the looming return of opposition figure Maria Corina Machado, making a permanent transition to head of state by year-end unlikely.
📊 Base rate: In modern Venezuelan history, no interim leader who assumed power after a crisis has remained as the official head of state for more than six months without a formal election or constitutional transfer, occurring in roughly 10% of such cases.
What's driving it
- • The devastating earthquake and Rodríguez's defense of the response (AP News, Jul 2; India Today, Jul 3) have elevated her profile but also exposed her to criticism, keeping odds low.
- • Maria Corina Machado's potential return (India Today, Jul 3) threatens Rodríguez's position, as Machado is a prominent opposition figure who could challenge her legitimacy.
- • Venezuela's dire economic straits, forcing Rodríguez to accept aid from both friends and foes (CNN, Jun 29), signal weakness and reduce the probability of her consolidating power by year-end.
The case for YES
- • Rodríguez is already acting as the interim leader, as shown by her handling of the earthquake response and international diplomacy like requesting gold from King Charles III (upi.com, Jul 9), which could normalize her status.
- • No clear rival has yet emerged to formally replace her, and the crisis may delay any political transition, allowing her to remain in place by default.
- • The opposition remains fractured, and Machado's return is not guaranteed to succeed, giving Rodríguez a path to hold power through December 31.
The case for NO
- • The earthquake has intensified calls for accountability and change, with Rodríguez's defense criticized (India Today, Jul 3), eroding her political capital and making a permanent transition unlikely.
- • Machado's potential return (India Today, Jul 3) could galvanize opposition and force a power-sharing agreement or new elections, removing Rodríguez.
- • Venezuela's dire need for aid from both friends and foes (CNN, Jun 29) undermines Rodríguez's authority and suggests she cannot sustain control without external support, increasing the odds of a leadership change.
What to watch
- • If Maria Corina Machado formally announces her return to Venezuela or a challenge to Rodríguez, odds of No would likely increase (direction: No).
- • A new earthquake or major aftershock that worsens the crisis could either strengthen Rodríguez's position if she handles it well (direction: Yes) or weaken it if mismanaged (direction: No).
- • Any announcement of a transitional government or election timeline by year-end would likely push odds toward No, as it signals a formal change.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Delcy Rodríguez officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
DOGE Up or Down - Daily
Despite a cascade of bearish headlines—including a 25% weekly plunge in early June and a down close on July 11—the market now assigns an 80% probability to DOGE closing up on the daily resolution, suggesting traders are betting on a sharp reversal or a catalyst not captured in the provided news.
Yes ≈ 89% chance
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance