Will Brian Armstrong appear in the first episode of UpOnly?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 46% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 46% right now.
Data from Myriad’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved on-chain per the rules written into each market (stablecoin-settled). On-chain settlement is transparent but, like any market, only as good as the rules it was written with.
Resolution criteria
**Market Dates:** - **Market Period:** Upon market publication until the first episode of Up Only is announced to be released. - **Market Close:** Before the first episode of Up Only is released. - **Resolution Time:** The outcome will be determined after the first episode of Up Only has aired. **Market Period and Market Close will be adapted once the official time of release for the first episode of the Up Only podcast has been announced.** **Resolution Criteria:** - Resolves to “**Yes**” if Brian Armstrong appears in video, physical, or audio form in the first episode of the next season of the “Up Only” podcast. - Resolves to “**No**” if Brian Armstrong doesn’t appear. **Resolution Details:** - An announcement that Brian Armstrong is set to appear on the episode alone is not enough to trigger a “**Yes**” resolution. - The official first episode of the “UpOnly” podcast by Cobie and Ledger will be used as the resolution source. - Any appearance of Brian Armstrong must be verifiably him. An impersonator, for example, would not resolve “Yes.” - In case the “Up Only” podcast by Cobie and Ledger is renamed, this market will consider the newly named podcast equally and will resolve accordingly. **Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:** This market will be **cancelled** if: - The Up Only podcast is cancelled before the first episode launched. - Any extraordinary event prevents a verifiable determination of the outcome. In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This may result in a profit or loss depending on share prices.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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