Bitcoin, Ethereum, and token price and protocol questions, aggregated as live odds across venues.
4,439 markets · page 11 of 185
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Despite the 98% No odds, the real story is that Bitcoin has been stuck in a prolonged crypto winter for years, and the market sees virtually no chance of a sudden breakout to new all-time highs within the next two months, given the lack of bullish catalysts and the depth of the bearish trend.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 82% chance
With only five days left in July, Bitcoin is priced around $70,000, making a 10.7% surge to $77,500 extremely unlikely despite bullish headlines on Japan ETF adoption and miner contract value.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
The market sees the post as unlikely to break into LessWrong's top 50 due to its niche crypto focus and the platform's emphasis on AI alignment, with the 11% odds reflecting a stable baseline skepticism rather than any new catalyst.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 0% chance