Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Who will Trump pardon before 2027? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 6hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 6%–50%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Across prediction markets, the average chance of Trump pardoning himself before 2027 is about 8%, but one play-money market shows a much higher 50%, likely because it uses fake currency and attracts different participants.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗