Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 34% chance — unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 37mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 34%–39%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The two prediction markets collectively imply about a 36% chance of at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 34% right now.
Despite a handful of localized outbreaks and low vaccination rates in some communities, the U.S. is on track for far fewer than 4,000 measles cases in 2026, with only 171 confirmed through mid-July — a pace that would need to accelerate more than 20-fold in the remaining five months to hit the threshold.
📊 Base rate: The highest annual U.S. measles count since 2000 was 1,282 cases in 2019; 4,000 would be more than triple that peak, making it an extreme outlier in modern epidemiology.
What's driving it
- • The CDC reported only 171 confirmed cases across nine states as of July 19, 2026 (MSN, Jul 19), putting the year-to-date total at roughly 4% of the 4,000 target with less than half the year left.
- • International outbreaks — including a deadly outbreak in Bangladesh (NBC News, Apr 2) and a fast-spreading school outbreak in London (BBC, Feb 15) — have not translated into a comparable U.S. surge, suggesting border measures and higher baseline immunity are containing spread.
- • Localized vaccination gaps, such as in a Minnesota city where less than half of kindergartners are vaccinated (Star Tribune, May 9), have not yet sparked a large-scale outbreak, keeping the national count low.
The case for YES
- • A single large, uncontained outbreak in a densely populated, under-vaccinated area could rapidly add hundreds or thousands of cases, as seen in the 2019 New York outbreaks that contributed to that year's 1,282 total.
- • The CDC counter may lag or undercount; if unreported cases from earlier in the year are later confirmed, the official tally could jump significantly.
- • Fall and winter typically see higher respiratory virus transmission, and if schools become epicenters — as hinted by the London school outbreak (BBC, Feb 15) — cases could accelerate in the final months.
The case for NO
- • With only 171 cases through July 19, reaching 4,000 would require an unprecedented 23-fold increase in the remaining five months, far exceeding any historical U.S. surge.
- • The U.S. has maintained relatively high national vaccination rates and robust public health surveillance, making a massive, sustained outbreak unlikely.
- • Even the worst recent U.S. measles year (2019) saw only 1,282 cases, and that required multiple large outbreaks; no comparable clusters have emerged in 2026.
What to watch
- • CDC weekly case updates (ongoing): If weekly counts remain below 50, No odds will strengthen; a sudden jump to hundreds per week would boost Yes.
- • Start of the 2026–2027 school year in August/September: A major outbreak in a school district, especially one with low vaccination rates (e.g., the Minnesota community cited in May), could drive a Yes move.
- • Any new federal or state policy change on vaccination requirements or quarantine measures (e.g., after the Texas ICE facility outbreak in February, The Guardian, Feb 5) could either contain or accelerate spread, affecting odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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