Who IPOs first?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Anthropic at about a 86% chance — very likely.
The 86% Yes odds reflect a belief that a rebounding IPO market and strong first-half capital markets will push either Anthropic or OpenAI to go public first, but the lack of any direct IPO filing or official statement from either company means the high probability is driven by general market momentum rather than concrete plans.
What's driving it
- • The broad IPO market rebound, with Nasdaq posting a record first half (investordaily.com.au, Jul 3) and European IPO proceeds up 76% (Investment Week, Jul 2), creates a favorable environment that investors expect will accelerate crypto-adjacent IPOs.
- • Blockbuster IPOs bolstering capital markets in the first half (Law360, Jul 2) signal strong investor appetite, making it more plausible that either Anthropic or OpenAI would seize the window.
- • No recent headline mentions Anthropic or OpenAI IPO filings or official statements, so the odds are not driven by company-specific news but by the general bullish IPO climate.
The case for YES
- • The IPO market is in a strong rebound with record first-half performance (investordaily.com.au, Jul 3), making it highly likely that at least one major AI company will IPO soon, and the first among Anthropic and OpenAI will be Yes.
- • The first major robotics IPO (24/7 Wall St., Jul 2) demonstrates that high-tech companies are capitalizing on market conditions, suggesting Anthropic or OpenAI could follow suit.
- • The overall favorable regulatory and capital markets environment, as seen in the first Argentine IPO in the US since 2019 (Bloomberg.com, Jul 2), reduces barriers for tech IPOs.
The case for NO
- • No direct evidence exists that either Anthropic or OpenAI has filed for an IPO or made any official statement about going public, leaving the 86% Yes odds unsupported by concrete filings.
- • Both companies may prioritize staying private to maintain control and avoid quarterly earnings pressure, especially given their massive capital raises from private markets.
- • The congressional stock buys and record IPO headlines (CNBC, Jul 3) are about SpaceX, a different company, and do not reflect Anthropic or OpenAI plans.
What to watch
- • Any SEC filing by Anthropic or OpenAI for an IPO would dramatically shift odds to near 100% Yes; direction: strongly Yes if filing occurs.
- • A public statement from either company ruling out a 2026 IPO would push odds down sharply; direction: strongly No.
- • End-of-quarter IPO pipeline reports (e.g., Q3 2026 filings due in October) could reveal names; direction: could move Yes if either company is listed in the pipeline.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Myriad’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved on-chain per the rules written into each market (stablecoin-settled). On-chain settlement is transparent but, like any market, only as good as the rules it was written with.
Resolution criteria
### **Market Details:** - **Market Close:** This market will close after either of the companies has officially had its IPO. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined as soon as an outcome is reached. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - Resolves to **“Anthropic”** if Anthropic IPOs before OpenAI. - Resolves to **“OpenAI”** if OpenAI IPOs before Anthropic. ### **Resolution Details:** - This market will resolve based on the official communications by Anthropic and OpenAI. - To IPO, for the purposes of this market, is defined as an Initial Public Offering (IPO), also known as the process where a private company first sells shares to the public and thus transitioning into a publicly traded entity. - A confirmation of an IPO date alone will not trigger a resolution. Either IPO must occur and be publicly tradable on any exchange for it to count towards resolution. - Resolution may be delayed in case there are grounds to suspect that resolution sources may be corrupted or hacked. ### **Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:** - Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome. - Myriad Markets undergoes a change in its contract that demands a cancellation of all active markets, or a similar significant technical change. In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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