Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 97% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 97% right now.
Multiple news outlets report that AI models have achieved a perfect score at the 2026 IMO, making the 97% odds a near-certainty that the event has already occurred, with the market awaiting final formal confirmation.
📊 Base rate: Before 2026, no AI system had ever scored 100% at the IMO; the prior probability for any given year was effectively zero, making the current odds a dramatic break from history.
What's driving it
- • France 24 (Jul 23) and Taipei Times (Jul 23) both report that AI scored 100% at the top math contest, directly confirming the event.
- • XenoSpectrum (Jul 24) specifically states this is the first perfect score at the IMO, reinforcing the uniqueness of the achievement.
- • Multiple Chinese outlets (finance.biggo.com, Storyboard18) name Huawei and Xiaohongshu models as the specific AI systems achieving the perfect score, adding credibility from corporate claims.
The case for YES
- • At least four independent news outlets (France 24, XenoSpectrum, Taipei Times, News of Bahrain) all report the same outcome, suggesting a confirmed result.
- • The named models from Huawei and Xiaohongshu imply real, verifiable submissions to the IMO, not just benchmark tests.
- • The IMO is a well-known, standardized competition, so a perfect score is a clear, objective milestone that can be easily verified by the market.
The case for NO
- • The reports might refer to a different, non-official 'AI track' at the IMO, not the main human competition, which could affect the definition of 'perfect score achieved by an AI model'.
- • No single official IMO press release or statement has been cited yet, leaving a small chance of a correction or disavowal.
- • The near-unanimous market belief (97%) paradoxically means that any remaining uncertainty is extremely low, but it is not zero until the market resolves.
What to watch
- • Official IMO organization announcement or press release confirming the perfect score (Jul 26?): likely to lock in Yes at 100%.
- • Statement from a major AI lab (e.g., DeepMind, OpenAI) claiming credit or correcting the attribution: could shift odds slightly if they dispute the model's performance, but direction is unclear.
- • Verification by independent mathematicians or a detailed breakdown of the AI's solutions (within days): would reinforce Yes, pushing odds to 100%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗